Recent conflict escalation in the Middle East materially increases near-term operational and export risks across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies, driven by targeted strikes on energy infrastructure and trade disruptions. This has led to downgrades in conflict-risk assessments for most Gulf states, reflecting heightened vulnerability of hydrocarbon-dependent revenue streams.

However, the long-term investment case remains intact across most countries. Institutional resilience, limited societal disruption, and strong fiscal capacity mean that core capital—human, institutional, and natural—has not been materially impaired, preserving long-term wealth-generation potential.

Download Country Risk Implications of Middle East Conflict Escalation to learn about:

• Where risks have increased and why GCC countries face higher short-term risk to economic output and export capacity. 
• How resilient institutions, low casualties, and manageable infrastructure damage are limiting any structural deterioration in sovereign credit and growth capacity. 
• Country differentiation and why risk profiles remain unchanged for some countries, while others to face structurally higher risks.   
• Which outcomes to monitor and how key triggers, like escalation intensity or broader infrastructure damage, could shift the outlook.